Shocks, stakes and showdowns ahead

WITH the Provincial Championships now wrapped up and the All-Ireland group stage in full swing, the 2025 intercounty football season has already delivered its fair share of drama. The draw has been made, the first round is half-way complete, and if recent results are anything to go by, we’re in for a rollercoaster summer.

The biggest talking points? Galway and Mayo—two of the most fancied sides—both suffered surprise defeats on home turf; these early slip-ups could prove costly. While the group stage has had its critics, one thing is crystal clear—finishing top of your group is the golden ticket. Not only does it guarantee a direct route to the quarter-finals, but it also comes with a crucial bonus—a week off. And that rest period has proven to be more than just a breather. In the past two seasons under this format, six of the eight group winners went on to win their quarter-finals. The only exceptions? Armagh, who fell to Monaghan in 2023, and Dublin, who were stunned by Galway in 2024.

The numbers don’t lie—top spot gives you a serious edge when it comes to making a semi-final push. With that in mind, the next few weeks are shaping up to be absolutely electric. The stakes are high, the margins are fine, and the matchups are mouthwatering. From redemption arcs to potential upsets, there’s no shortage of storylines to follow.

Group 1

Cavan turned heads with a brilliant, fully deserved win over Mayo (above)—blowing this group wide open. Can Mayo bounce back against Tyrone in Omagh or Donegal at a neutral venue? Honestly, it’s hard to see it. I tipped Mayo as a potential flop of 2025, and that prediction is looking more accurate by the day. Bottom of the group and out of the championship? It’s on the cards.

Cavan likely won’t get past Donegal, but they’ll be desperate to right the wrongs of their Ulster clash with Tyrone. That rematch could be a cracker. With Paddy Lynch back, Cavan have a real shot at another upset—he’s absolutely vital to their chances.

As for Tyrone, they’ll take flight... someday. When? That’s anyone’s guess. It could be next week in Ballybofey, or it could be next year. That’s the Tyrone conundrum—you never know which version will show up. There’s a kick in them yet, but they might need to dig deep against Cavan to secure second place.

Group 2

Kerry look like the clearest group winners of the lot. A clean sweep wouldn’t surprise anyone. The trip to Cork might be tricky, but Kerry will fancy it just as much as the Rebels. They’ll want to prove that the titanic battle between them earlier in the year was a fluke—Kerry should have won it comfortably, if not for the red card.

So, who grabs the other spots—Roscommon, Meath, or Cork? Meath should edge Cork in Navan and could well sneak past Roscommon too. That sets up a massive final clash between the Rossies and Rebels, likely with a preliminary quarter-final spot on the line. Neutral venue. Winner takes all.

Roscommon have the firepower, but Cork’s running game could cause problems—something Roscommon have struggled with. Expect a tight one, possibly decided by a single score. Slight edge? Roscommon, just about.

Group 3

Down did exactly what was needed—show up and take care of business against Clare. It had all the makings of a potential banana skin, but they passed the test with flying colours. No, Down aren’t winning the All-Ireland, but they’ve put themselves in a strong position to secure a home preliminary quarter-final. And in Newry, that’s a serious advantage. No one will fancy a trip there. But first, they have to get past Louth—and that’s no gimme.

In the league, Down couldn’t beat a Louth side missing up to seven starters. Now, those players are back, and they’re riding high after a historic Leinster title. The odds aren’t exactly in Down’s favour. Still, there’s a glimmer of hope. Could Louth take their foot off the gas? Maybe enjoy the celebrations a bit too much? If so, Down—at home, with the crowd behind them—could spring a surprise. It’s a long shot, but not impossible. Either way, this one promises fireworks.

Group 4

Welcome to the Group of Death—where predicting first to fourth is like throwing darts blindfolded. One win might not even be enough to guarantee third place. But let’s try to make sense of it anyway.

Galway should bounce back with a win over Derry in Round 2. Armagh are likely to beat Derry as well. That sets up a blockbuster—Dublin vs Armagh in Croke Park. It’s massive for both sides. A coin toss of a game, but I’ll lean ever so slightly toward Armagh to edge it.

If that plays out, we could be looking at Armagh on 4 points, Dublin and Galway on 2, and Derry on 0 heading into the final round. That would leave Derry vs Dublin at a neutral venue with everything on the line.

A Derry win would knock Dublin out and send Derry through. If you offered that scenario to Derry right now, they’d bite your hand off. But can they actually pull it off? There has to be a kick left in this Derry team. Whether it’s enough to beat Dublin when it matters most—that’s the real question. And where Derry’s confidence will be come Round 3 is another factor as to why they might not be able to.